Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 28.001415 29.894269 31.932568 34.305497 37.011437 40.024907 43.669058
2025-11-23 25.452981 28.050315 31.017299 34.711211 39.267738 44.821476 52.303051
2025-11-30 23.778011 26.702254 30.164300 34.662100 40.509586 48.110160 59.237152
2025-12-07 22.353946 25.451591 29.217761 34.273161 41.126504 50.525812 65.342862
2025-12-14 20.722080 23.790719 27.582601 32.777183 40.010466 50.290459 67.353881
2025-12-21 19.983106 23.176769 27.202803 32.860984 41.016197 53.168134 74.844589
2025-12-28 19.463277 22.793528 27.073205 33.240708 42.444541 56.855841 84.704495
2026-01-04 18.599338 21.907700 26.208537 32.502099 42.099808 57.614658 89.267431
2026-01-11 18.308098 21.752630 26.309440 33.136585 43.909246 62.249577 103.329156
2026-01-18 17.932849 21.459777 26.193851 33.429342 45.188872 66.165237 117.586805
2026-01-25 17.307020 20.796350 25.519511 32.823173 44.904901 67.082764 124.740820
2026-02-01 16.823493 20.306015 25.063420 32.515390 45.088154 68.937262 135.484268
2026-02-08 16.084342 19.508969 24.234638 31.743401 44.696996 70.220249 147.917220
2026-02-15 15.726999 19.235009 24.160082 32.182885 46.583634 77.035562 187.949319
2026-02-22 15.278297 18.800929 23.810222 32.124723 47.514834 81.982931 230.326724
2026-03-01 14.798336 18.296971 23.322065 31.787432 47.850624 85.606439 276.192595
2026-03-08 14.114017 17.470897 22.304074 30.475680 46.076854 83.197326 278.946546
2026-03-15 13.816662 17.191654 22.104501 30.549366 47.136462 88.961444 366.887594
2026-03-22 13.601675 17.021065 22.059442 30.882668 48.788311 97.217882 554.511647
2026-03-29 13.179645 16.529093 21.487585 30.233983 48.214740 98.270161 663.557308
2026-04-05 13.049334 16.463010 21.581401 30.791310 50.423495 109.885123 1530.457822
2026-04-12 12.862508 16.303829 21.516416 31.048110 51.986522 120.301270 8371.233798
2026-04-19 12.526267 15.907620 21.050389 30.516144 51.569487 122.492009 NaN